Everyday Murders in Mexico Fall Over a Third In the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Data

The average figure of daily killings monthly in Mexico has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to recent administrative data. But, public safety specialists have cautioned that murder figures could fail to point to better national stability.

Marked Reduction in Daily Averages

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in November as opposed to nearly 87 when the President took the presidential office in the previous September. This information was provided by the director of the nation's federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that have been recorded over these months is extremely significant,” the President remarked, explaining that last month the smallest number of murders were recorded for any single November in the past decade.

Recent Background and Official Strategy

Violent drug cartel internal conflicts, alongside the administration's heavily military operations to confront the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent times. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's official data office.

That meant Mexico a murder rate more than four times higher than that of the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security approach for an seemingly steeper drop in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a strategy, there is oversight of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The approach is effective. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The main components of the President's security strategy encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Increased cooperation between government agencies.

Expert Warnings and Data Limitations

However, security experts warned that relying on homicide numbers to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is particularly true given the uptick in other crimes such as people going missing.

“That would be positive news if this were a drop, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the murder data and say: ‘Alright, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

According to the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the same period the previous year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer valid for assessing the context of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the capacity or the inclination to accurately identify and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that using monthly means of everyday homicides was also concerning because it might obscure days when there were notably high numbers of killings.

“Employing the daily mean makes spikes of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 suspects were detained between last October and November 2025 for serious crimes, per government figures. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly politically advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with extreme bloodshed, with several regions in the midst of cartel-related violence. In the previous month there was a high-profile assassination of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the past year.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the nation to voice their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to construct a narrative of security. Politically it’s highly successful, socially it’s highly problematic,” Vargas concluded.